Statistical Analysis of Road Side Accidents Related to Faisalabad Environment

By Muhammad Attique Khan Shahid¹, K. Hussain² and Iftikar Ahmad³
November 2006

Authors Designation:

  1. Professor at the Department of Physics, Chairman Supervisory Committee and Internships, Incharge Academic Research and Master Level Programmes with GC University, in Faisalabad - Pakistan
  2. Department of Physics, Punjab University, Lahore
  3. Department of Physics, GC University, FSD
The study is concerned with road side accident related to Faisalabad city. 80% accident happened during peak hours, where as 50% accidents occurred on the main roads. Vehicle wise the % of accident by motorcycles, trucks & pick ups, buses and cars are 26.27%, 19.86%, 19.43%, 17.67%, and 16.74% respectively, among these accidents 72.08% are fatal while 27.92% non fatal. Death rates are increasing considerably from 0.859 to 1.046. In depth interviews shows that only 26.5% data is registered while 73.5% is non registered. The main causes of accidents are, fast speeding, rush negligible driving, frequent use of mobiles and visibility reduction.

Introduction

It is rare to find an occupation which does not entail a potential risk to health and sometimes even more than a risk. Several examples come to mind about farm work in the tropics, where workers may be exposed simultaneously to pesticides and excessive heat. In foundry operation occupational exposure may include various fumes, irritant gases, carbon monoxide, heat and dust. In the chemical industry one may find the combined hazards of various chemicals, a mixture of solvent gases and vapors. Even in office work where the physical environment may be fully controlled, several psycho-social stress factors may exist including pressing demands, inter-personal relations and job security.

 With an estimated 50 million work-related accidents occurring each year many of them resulting in permanent disability, the war on accidents which began over a century ago is being fought on a global scale. In this war against accidents, some success has been achieved in developed countries. But in the under-developed ones the reduction of accident frequency and severity rates to the lowest figures attained by human efforts, lies a long away ahead. It is towards this eventual goal that the worldwide efforts for the improvement of working conditions are underway with the full support of U N agencies.

Apart from the human agency and despair which they cause, these accidents continue to drain away valuable human resources and place a heavy burden on economy of every country. Another disturbing factor, which make the task of prevention all the more urgent in that while the accident frequency may have leveled out in most of the industrialized countries, the rate of fatal accidents in the developing countries like India has doubled or even tripled. Road traffic accidents have been studied in all the developed countries of the world. How ever this aspect has not been studied in Pakistan and especially in the province of Punjab (Faisalabad) there fore it was thought worth while to study this aspect statistically to get on in sight. {1-4}

Material and Method

Data related to such type of study come from a number of different sources. A systematic review of electronic database searches, regional indices, and institutional reports was conducted to identify and study on motor vehicle crashes in any part of Pakistan. Police records have been used as a source of data since 1956. Data on crashes were obtained from the Federal Police Research Bureau; for registered vehicles, from the Provincial Departments of Excise and Taxation; and for road kilometers from the Federal Bureau of statistics; in Islamabad, Pakistan. Population density, vehicles/km, motorization level (that is number of vehicles /1000 population) and road traffic crashes in the years 1956 to 1996 were used to measure the risk of road traffic injuries. The documents use the nomenclature of „road traffic accidents” and rates, whereas we use motor vehicle crashes as the standard terminology in recognition of the fact that most of the accidents are potentially preventable. However, in cases where direct public sector data has been used, we have left the terminology as documented originally. The number of accidents might be greater in number but we have to rely upon the police records as this only source seems appropriate. The data were collected from FIRs and courts. Where as the data of road accidents happened in Faisalabad were obtained from bureau of statistics, P&D department, Government of the Punjab (Faisalabad).

For this study 50 interviews were conducted with the survivors of motor vehicle crashes between May and August 2004. These were done in the hospital on the day on which patients were to be discharged. In addition to time, place, cause of accident, and effectiveness of emergency medical services, they were specifically asked whether police registered a case for that particular crash or not.

Statistical Analysis

The statistical parameters like mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variance, male female death ratio, risk factor and individual risk factor were calculated using standard relations and the results of the analysis were presented in this study.

Results & Discussion

Table 2K01   Statistical Analyses (Year Wise Data 2001-2005)
Year Mean
Fatal Non-Fatal Total Accidents Killed Injured
2001 14.75 6.08 21.91 18.83 21.41
2002 13.66 5.86 19.58 16.91 18.58
2003 17.16 6.91 24.33 20.41 23.91
2004 30.16 10.5 23.25 20.08 24.41
2005 14.66 5.66 21.33 22.33 27
Table 2K02   Standard Deviation
2001 6.67 2.92 19.45 17.18 50.06
2002 2.59 2.88 4.06 6.75 6.51
2003 3.49 2.95 6.67 4.99 11.89
2004 43.20 16.64 3.63 4.0 11.53
2005 4.99 1.70 5.74 8.34 4.89
Table 2K03   Coefficient of Variance
2001 45.27 48.18 19.49 17.18 50.06
2002 19.02 49.45 20.73 40.27 35.05
2003 20.30 42.77 27.71 24.44 50.31
2004 143.23 158.47 15.61 19.92 47.23
2005 30.67 30.03 26.91 37.34 18.11
Table 2K04   Transport Type Data (2001-2005)
Year Mean
B T Cr M.C. P
2001 1.33 2 1.66 2.25 2
2002 1.25 2.25 1.16 2.41 1.5
2003 1.9 1 1.58 2.5 1.75
2004 1.75 1.75 1.5 2.1 1.6
Nature wise accident %ag 17.67% 19.86% 16.74% 26.27% 19.43%
Table 2K05   Standard Deviation
2001 0.94 1.118 0.86 0.82 0.91
2002 0.87 0.144 0.8 1.034 0.86
2003 0.98 0.84 1.12 0.74 0.73
2004 1.009 0.59 1.118 1.73 0.83
Table 2K06   Coefficient of Variance
2001 70.70 55.9 51.97 36.8 45.6
2002 70.08 6.4 69.7 42.9 57.7
2003 5.1 53.1 70.8 30.5 41.2
2004 57.71 34.12 74.5 108.6 51.9

From above Data it is clear that most of the accidents occurred due to M C in year 2003.

Table 2K07   Data for Road wise Accidents (2001-2005)
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004
Month Road
January Jhumbra Sumundri Service Sargodha
February Jharanwala Jail Jhuranwala Lahore
March Aminpur Jhuranwala Makooana Link
April Satiana Lahore Aminpur Satiana
May Jharanwala Dajkot Aminpur Aminpur
June Sargodha Aminpur Lahore Jhung
July Jhung City area Sumundri Jharanwala
August Sumundri Lahore Railway Lahore
September Lahore Jhung Sargodha Dajkot
October Lahore Sargodha Jhung Suimundri
November Canal Aminpur Sumundri Jharanwala
Comparative study (5 year span 2001-2005)
Percentage of fatal accidents72.08%
Percentage of non fatal accidents27.92%
Table 2K07   Year Wise Comparative study for individual Risk Factor
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005(Contd)
% IRF 30.83 30.75 33.51 23.58 32.05

Discussion

Data on motor vehicles registered, number of motor vehicle crashes, injuries and deaths for Pakistan from the earliest record available in the public sector. Pakistan gained independence in 1947, and records are available since then.

The total number of registered vehicles increased 17 times between 1956 and 1996. At the same time, there was a fivefold increase in vehicles on the road, indicative of vehicle density, and a 237% increase in the number of people/km² (population density). During this 40 year period there was a 14-fold increase in the total number of motor vehicle crashes, while the number of deaths due to road traffic crashes increased 16 times.

An extensive review of the data collection and reporting system revealed two important features. Since 1991, government documents have started using total number of „registered vehicles” instead of „vehicles on road” for accident fatality and other ratesrelated with number of vehicles. This change in denominator is more consistent with the reporting from other countries but requires caution for interpreting such rates. For example, fatalities/10 000 vehicles for 1996 would be 35 when vehicles on road are used and only 16 when registered vehicles are used as a denominator. This represents a halving (or doubling) of the rate when one or the other denominator is used for crash related rate calculations.

In-depth interviews of motor vehicle crash survivors revealed that only 26.5% of the interviewees confirmed that the crash in which they were injured was registered by the police. This indicates that police data may be missing 73.5% related to motor vehicle crash injuries in Punjab (Faisalabad). These in-depth interviews also revealed that all the victims were evacuated and transported to hospital emergency rooms by passengers, drivers or shopkeepers near the scene of the crash. Commercial vehicles represent only 24% of the total number of registered vehicles in any given year in Pakistan. Yet they were involved in over 50% of motor vehicle crashes and 80% of deaths due to motor vehicle crashes thesecomprise public service vehicles, large transport buses which carry local commuters, and intercity buses on highways. Since there are several indicators used for motor vehicle injuries, a number of these have been estimated for the most recent year for which all data were available for Punjab, Faisalabad. An increase in the population and number of vehicles, along with an expansion in road networks in the past 40 years has increased the risk of exposure for motor vehicle crashes. The current motor vehicle crash registry system is entirely basedon police reporting, and their job is to collect data for legal purposes and not for research and public policy. The nature, type of data, and collection methods make additional challenges for road traffic injury researchers. Another significant finding is that commercial vehicles are contributing disproportionately more towards motor vehicle crashes. One reason may be that commercial vehicles travel many morekilometers than cars, thereby having an increased risk for crashes. Equally important, is that despite a tremendous increase in the total number of vehicles in the last 40 years, the growth in the number of commercial vehicles has not been able to keep pace with the demand for transport reflected by population growth. This, and the profit motive, has led to the frequent practice of overloading these vehicles, which further contributes to more injuries per vehicle crash and to increased crash fatality rates. The study shows that 80% accident happened during peak hours, where as 50% accidents occurred on the main roads. Vehicle wise the % of accident by motorcycle trucks pick ups buses and cars are 26.27%, 19.86%, 19.43%, 17.67% and 16.74% respectively, among these accidents 72.08% are fatal while 27.92% non fatal. Death rates are increasing considerably from 0.859 to 1.046.In depth interviews shows that only 26.5% data is registered while 73.5% is non registered. The main cases of accidents are, fast speeding, rush negligible driving, frequent, use of mobiles and visibility reduction. In addition factors such as poor maintenance of vehicles, poor driver training, and driver fatigue may also be involved.

For the calculation of risk factor slandered mathematical expressions and methodology was adopted and was found that there is a huge difference our experimental findings and slandered results the reason may be for standard data collection whole of the population is considered while in our case only effected population is under consideration keeping in view this factor the difference still larger approximate 5 to 6 folds than data of slandered values which confirms the reduction in visibility due to global worming that is the existence of green houses gasses contributed by industrial and transport ional sector the main future of Faisalabad environment this state of affairs if not control will prove to be a great danger for human health in near future . Significant variation in SD and CV related to transport type wise data shows the consistency of occurrence of road accidents while wide variation in SD and CV related to year wise data shows the randomness and unpredictable nature of accident occurrence.

The impact of changing denominators is important for data analysis and may be responsible for perceived changes in time trends. Although reasons for the decision to change the denominator in 1991 in Pakistan from vehicles on road to registered vehicles are unclear, it has brought the reporting system closer to that of other countries. In addition, registered vehicles can be obtained from vehicle licensing and taxation records with more ease and relatively better precision. However, there is morework to be done in the country so that figures that account for crashes, injuries, or deaths per 100 million vehicle km can be reported. This will enable a better measurement of risk for injuries and fatalities from road traffic and also facilitate international comparisons.

Conclusions

The important conclusion of this study are:

We also conclude from these results that most of the accidents occur due to fast speeding, rush negligible driving, and frequent use of mobiles, visibility reduction.{5-8}

Suggestions

Acknowledgements

The Authors are highly obliged to acknowledge the services of deputy director EPD and Officer in charges of police, Exise & Taxation and bureau of statistics, P&D department. government of the Punjab (Faisalabad )along with their technical teams for providing us related data, technical assistance when and where needed. Their valuable suggestions, in time encouragements, healthy discussions and positive criticism in getting this work completed in utmost ease and perfection.

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